Is Bitcoin on Track for $100K? All Eyes on the FOMC Decision
Bitcoin Price Recovery Pauses as Markets Await Key Fed Interest Rate Decision
The recent rally in Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have hit a temporary plateau as investor attention pivots towards the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate announcement. As of Sunday, Bitcoin was trading within the narrow range of $95,000 to $96,000 — a solid 30% rebound from its April lows, yet showing signs of consolidation ahead of a pivotal week for financial markets.
This stabilization in price comes amid a flurry of geopolitical developments. Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently reignited discussions about global trade talks, including renewed engagement with China. Although China’s Commerce Ministry expressed willingness to negotiate, ongoing tariffs remain a significant barrier to progress. According to The Wall Street Journal, China is also considering a proposal on fentanyl regulations — an issue Trump has frequently cited when justifying trade barriers.
However, the central focus for Bitcoin traders now shifts firmly to the FOMC’s next move on monetary policy. Economists widely anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at 4.5%. With inflationary pressures still lingering and fresh concerns about a potential recession — underscored by last week’s data showing a 0.3% contraction in first-quarter GDP, the worst since 2022 — policymakers are expected to maintain a cautious outlook.
Market participants are already speculating that the Fed may opt for a modest 0.25% rate cut at its June meeting. According to betting markets like Polymarket, there is growing confidence that such a cut could materialize. Should this happen, the reduction in borrowing costs is likely to inject fresh momentum into risk assets, including Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
While the short-term outlook hinges on central bank policy, underlying fundamentals for Bitcoin remain robust. Historically, lower interest rates have buoyed demand for alternative assets, and many analysts believe that a dovish pivot by the Fed could spark renewed enthusiasm in crypto markets.
Investors will be watching both macroeconomic data and geopolitical headlines closely as these factors coalesce to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into the second half of the year.
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